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Abstract Reconstructing past oxygen fluctuations in oxygen minimum zones (OMZs) is crucial for understanding their response to climate change. Numerous studies suggest better oxygenation in the Arabian Sea OMZ during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) compared to the Holocene. However, bottom water oxygen (BWO) variability during the Penultimate Glacial Cycle (Marine Isotope Stage [MIS] 6 to MIS 5e, ∼140–115 ka B.P.) remains poorly constrained. This study reconstructs BWO variations during this period from sediment core TN041‐8JPC in the western Arabian Sea OMZ, utilizing proxies including benthic foraminiferal surface porosity, redox‐sensitive trace metal enrichment factors (e.g., U_EF), and U/Ba ratios. Bottom water oxygen concentrations were 24.4 ± 5.9 μmol/kg during MIS 6 and 16.8 ± 6.5 μmol/kg during MIS 5e, with all proxies indicating higher BWO in MIS 6 than in MIS 5e. However, these proxies show different patterns within MIS 5e, indicating that U_EFand U/Ba ratios may be limited to recording average BWO in glacial and interglacial (quasi)steady states. We propose that the intensified OMZ during MIS 5e, relative to MIS 6, was driven by higher productivity, temperature‐induced reductions in oxygen solubility, and reduced delivery of Southern‐sourced intermediate waters. In contrast, the intensified OMZ during the Holocene, compared to the LGM, was likely influenced by lower oxygen solubility, reduced Southern water delivery, and winter convective mixing rather than productivity. This study highlights a general trend of weaker OMZs in glacial than interglacial periods, though the mechanisms may not be identical, offering insights into OMZ dynamics under climate change in the past. 

Abstract. The equatorial Pacific is a nexus of key oceanic and atmospheric phenomena, and its regional climate has critical implications for hydroclimate, the partitioning of CO2, and temperature on a global scale. The spatial complexity of climate signals across the basin has long posed a challenge for interpreting the interplay of different climate phenomena including changes in the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Here, we present new, millennially resolved sediment core chronologies and stable isotope records from three sites in the equatorial Pacific's Line Islands region, as well as updated chronologies for four previously studied cores. Age constraints are derived from 14C (n=17) and δ18O (n=610), which are used as inputs to a Bayesian software package (BIGMACS: Bayesian Inference Gaussian Process regression and Multiproxy Alignment of Continuous Signals) that constructs age models and uncertainty bounds via correlation with the global benthic δ18O stack (Lee et al., 2023). We also make use of the new planktonic δ18O data to draw inferences about surface water salinity and to infer a southward-shifted position for the ITCZ at the Last Glacial Maximum (18–24 ka) and Marine Isotope Stage 6 (138–144 ka). These new chronologies and related datasets improve our understanding of equatorial Pacific climate and show strong promise for further surface and deep ocean paleoclimate reconstructions over the last several glacial cycles. 

El Niño events, the warm phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, amplify climate variability throughout the world. Uncertain climate model predictions limit our ability to assess whether these climatic events could become more extreme under anthropogenic greenhouse warming. Palaeoclimate records provide estimates of past changes, but it is unclear if they can constrain mechanisms underlying future predictions. Here we uncover a mechanism using numerical simulations that drives consistent changes in response to past and future forcings, allowing model validation against palaeoclimate data. The simulated mechanism is consistent with the dynamics of observed extreme El Niño events, which develop when western Pacific warm pool waters expand rapidly eastwards because of strongly coupled ocean currents and winds. These coupled interactions weaken under glacial conditions because of a deeper mixed layer driven by a stronger Walker circulation. The resulting decrease in ENSO variability and extreme El Niño occurrence is supported by a series of tropical Pacific palaeoceanographic records showing reduced glacial temperature variability within key ENSO-sensitive oceanic regions, including new data from the central equatorial Pacific. The model–data agreement on past variability, together with the consistent mechanism across climatic states, supports the prediction of a shallower mixed layer and weaker Walker circulation driving more frequent extreme El Niño genesis under greenhouse warming. 

A compilation of radiocarbon measurements is used to characterize deep-sea overturning since the last ice age.